Tabletop Exercise on Space Crisis Dynamics and Uncertainty

As more countries integrate space into their national military capabilities and rely on space-based information for national security, there is an increased chance that any interference with satellites could spark or escalate a crisis or conflict. At the same time, the growing reliance on space for national security capabilities creates incentives for attacks on space capabilities as part of a conflict on Earth. The situation is further complicated by (1) the increasing dependence on commercial and civil space systems supporting the global economy, and (2) the challenge of determining the exact cause of a satellite malfunction: whether it was due to a space weather event, impact by space debris, unintentional interference, or deliberate aggression.

To help address these issues, the Secure World Foundation (SWF) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) co-hosted a tabletop exercise (TTX) on Space Crisis Dynamics and Uncertainty in Washington, DC, Nov. 9-10, 2016. The goal of the TTX was to raise awareness about the risks of escalation and crisis stability, and to identify gaps or shortcomings in existing national and international policies, strategies, communication channels, and political/legal mechanisms. The output of the TTX will be used to inform future work on developing new mechanisms to enhance space security and reduce the risk of a crisis involving space capabilities escalating to armed conflict.

Please contact SWF Technical Advisor Mr. Brian Weeden or Washington Office Director Ms. Victoria Samson for further details. 

Event Materials

All of the materials from the TTX, including the background materials, scenarios, and summary of events, can be found in the Summary Report, or can be downloaded individually below.

Background Materials

First Scenario Briefing

First Scenario Summary

Second Scenario Briefing

Second Scenario Summary

Third Scenario Briefing

Third Scenario Summary